What is a safe haven? What role should they play in an investment portfolio? Do we use them only to seek shelter until the passing of financial storms? Or are they something more? Contrary to everything we know from modern financial theory, can higher returns actually come as a result of lowering risk? In Safe Haven, hedge fund manager Mark Spitznagel—one of the top practitioners of safe haven investing and portfolio risk mitigation in the world—answers these questions and more. Investors who heed the message in this book will never look at risk mitigation the same way again.

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan, a bold book that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer: too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In his inimitable, pugnacious style, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't. As Taleb says, "The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster," and "Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them".

The Sunday Times bestseller, with a new introduction by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dominion tells the epic story of how those in the West came to be what they are, and why they think the way they do. Ranging from Moses to Merkel, from Babylon to Beverley Hills, from the emergence of secularism to the abolition of slavery, it explores why, in a society that has become increasingly doubtful of religion's claims, so many of its instincts remain irredeemably Christian. Christianity's enduring impact is not confined to churches. It can be seen everywhere in the West: in science, in secularism, in gay rights, even in atheism. It is - to coin a phrase - the greatest story ever told. 'If great books encourage you to look at the world in an entirely new way, then Dominion is a very great book indeed' Dominic Sandbrook, Sunday Times 'Terrific: bold, ambitious and passionate' Peter Frankopan 'A masterpiece of scholarship and storytelling' John Gray, New Statesman 'Filled with vivid portraits, gruesome deaths and moral debates... Holland has all the talents of an accomplished novelist' Terry Eagleton, Guardian

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday 'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent

'Really made me think about how I think' - Mohsin Hamid, author of Exit West Tough times don't last. Tough people do. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncer tainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resil ient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. 'The hottest thinker in the world' Bryan Appleyard, Sunday Times

'If great books encourage you to look at the world in an entirely new way, then Dominion is a very great book indeed . . . Written with terrific learning, enthusiasm and good humour, Holland's book is not just supremely provocative, but often very funny' Sunday Times History Book of the Year Christianity is the most enduring and influential legacy of the ancient world, and its emergence the single most transformative development in Western history. Even the increasing number in the West today who have abandoned the faith of their forebears, and dismiss all religion as pointless superstition, remain recognisably its heirs. Seen close-up, the division between a sceptic and a believer may seem unbridgeable. Widen the focus, though, and Christianity's enduring impact upon the West can be seen in the emergence of much that has traditionally been cast as its nemesis: in science, in secularism, and yes, even in atheism. That is why Dominion will place the story of how we came to be what we are, and how we think the way that we do, in the broadest historical context. Ranging in time from the Persian invasion of Greece in 480 BC to the on-going migration crisis in Europe today, and from Nebuchadnezzar to the Beatles, it will explore just what it was that made Christianity so revolutionary and disruptive; how completely it came to saturate the mind-set of Latin Christendom; and why, in a West that has become increasingly doubtful of religion's claims, so many of its instincts remain irredeemably Christian. The aim is twofold: to make the reader appreciate just how novel and uncanny were Christian teachings when they first appeared in the world; and to make ourselves, and all that we take for granted, appear similarly strange in consequence. We stand at the end-point of an extraordinary transformation in the understanding of what it is to be human: one that can only be fully appreciated by tracing the arc of its parabola over millennia.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan.

"From the Hardcover edition."

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. 'One of the smartest books of all time' Fortune 'An iconoclastic tour de force ... nothing escapes his Exocets' Evening Standard 'Brilliant' John Kay 'Excellent and thought-provoking ... an entertaining book' Financial Times 'Wall Street's principal dissident' Malcolm Gladwell

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of "The Black Swan" and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.
Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.
In "The Black Swan, "Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In "Antifragile, " Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.
Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the "Titanic" save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.
"Antifragile" is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.
Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.
Praise for "Antifragile"
"Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining."--"The Economist"
"A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives."--"Newsweek"
" "
"Revelatory . . . Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates."--"Chicago Tribune"
"Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again."--Matt Ridley, "The Wall Street Journal"
"Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb's insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted."--"New Statesman"
"Antifragility isn't just sound economic and political doctrine. It's also the key to a good life."--"Fortune"
" "
"At once thought-provoking and brilliant.""--Los Angeles Times"

"From the Hardcover edition."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of "The Black Swan" and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.
Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.
In "The Black Swan, "Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In "Antifragile, " Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.
Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the "Titanic" save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.
"Antifragile" is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.
Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.
Praise for "Antifragile"
"Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining."--"The Economist"
"A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives."--"Newsweek"
" "
"Revelatory . . . Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates."--"Chicago Tribune"
"Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again."--Matt Ridley, "The Wall Street Journal"
"Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb's insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted."--"New Statesman"
"Antifragility isn't just sound economic and political doctrine. It's also the key to a good life."--"Fortune"
" "
"At once thought-provoking and brilliant.""--Los Angeles Times"

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book--itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"The most prophetic voice of all.""--GQ"
" "
Praise for "The Black Swan"
" A book] that altered modern thinking."--"The Times" (London)
"A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of "Wired, "author of" The Long Tail"
" "
"Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, "Los Angeles Times"
" "
""The Black Swan" changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
" Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy.""--The Wall Street Journal"
" "
"Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--"Financial Times"
" "
"Engaging . . . "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.""--The New York Times Book Review"

A condensed guide to life, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Bed of Procrustes is an invaluable collection of aphorisms to help you navigate the modern world. Second edition, revised and expanded Why are we so often unwilling to accept that life is unpredictable? In this brilliant book Nassim Nicholas Taleb distils his idiosyncratic wisdom to demolish our illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance and erudition against modern philistinism and phoniness. Only by accepting what we don't know, he shows, can we see the world as it really is.

By the author of the modern classic "The Black Swan," this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect.
"The Bed of Procrustes" takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery.
Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized.
With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan-has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world of trading-"Fooled by Randomness" provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world's wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time-he embodies the "survival of the least fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading "Fooled by Randomness" we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR "FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS":
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
"["Fooled by Randomness"] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."
-Malcolm Gladwell, author of "Blink"
"The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade."
-Maggie Mahar, author of "Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982--1999"
"Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you."
-Peter L. Bernstein, author of "Capital Ideas Evolving"
"Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould."
-Michael Schrage, author of "Serious Play: How the World's Best Companies Simulate to Innovate"
"We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded."
-Robert J. Shiller, author of "Irrational Exuberance "
"Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance."
"-National Review"
"If asked to name the five best books written about markets, "Fooled by Randomness" would be on my list."
-Jack D. Schwager, author of "Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders"
"Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book."
"-Financial Times"

'A classic' - Simon Kuper, Financial Times

'This is brilliant' - James O'Brien, author of How to be Right

The five laws that confirm our worst fears: stupid people can and do rule the world.

Since time immemorial, a powerful dark force has hindered the growth of human welfare and happiness. It is more powerful than the Mafia or the military. It has global catastrophic effects and can be found anywhere from the world’s most powerful boardrooms to your local pub. This is the immensely powerful force of human stupidity.

Seeing the shambolic state of human affairs, and sensing the dark force at work behind it, Carlo M. Cipolla, the late, noted professor of economic history at the University of California, Berkeley, created a vitally important economic model that would allow us to detect, know and neutralise this threat: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.

If you've ever found yourself despairing at the ubiquity of stupidity among even the most 'intellectual' of people, then this hilarious, timely and slightly alarming little book is for you. Arm yourself in the face of baffling political realities, unreasonable colleagues or the unbridled misery of dinner with the in-laws with the first and only economic model for stupidity.

Le hasard nous rend meilleurs Avec ce provocant paradoxe, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, l'auteur du best-seller Le Cygne Noir, nous offre un enseignement d'une portee revolutionnaire: comment non seulement surmonter les cataclysmes de notre temps - ces Cygnes Noirs qui fondent sur un homme, une culture, une civilisation, les bouleversent et les reduisent a neant -, mais en faire une source de bienfaits. De meme que le corps humain se renforce a mesure qu'il est soumis au stress et a l'effort, de meme que les mouvements populaires grandissent lorsqu'ils sont reprimes, de meme le vivant en general se developpe d'autant mieux qu'il est confronte a des facteurs de desordre, de volatilite ou a quoi que ce soit a meme de le troubler. Cette faculte a non seulement tirer profit du chaos mais a en avoir besoin pour devenir meilleur est l'antifragile, a l'image de l'antique Hydre de Lerne dont les tetes se multipliaient a mesure qu'elles etaient coupees. Riche, limpide et spirituel, promenant son lecteur dans les rues tonitruantes de Brooklyn, les chemins de la pensee antique, les dedales de l'affaire Kerviel, de la gauche caviar ou les meandres des neurosciences avec autant d'aisance et de legerete profonde, ce livre, dont la science n'est jamais sans conscience, laisse une question en suspens: etes-vous pret a devenir antifragile? Libano-New-Yorkais, Nassim Nicholas Taleb est ecrivain, ancien trader, statisticien et philosophe des sciences du hasard. Depuis 2007, il est l'un des essayistes les plus lus et les plus traduits dans le monde. Il a ete le seul a avoir anticipe la crise financiere et son ampleur. Taleb se consacre aujourd'hui a l'ecriture et enseigne les rapports entre l'epistemologie des probabilites et les sciences de l'incertitude, et notamment la prise de decision en situation d'opacite a l'universite de New York ou il a recu le titre de Distinguished Professor ainsi qu'au Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne ou il est professeur invite. Best-seller traduit en trente-trois langues, son premier ouvrage, Le Hasard sauvage, a paru aux Belles Lettres en 2005. Le Cygne Noir (Les Belles Lettres, 2007) a ete vendu a trois millions d'exemplaires dans le monde. Antifragile est le troisieme volet de cette philosophie aux vertus tonifiantes.